Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  16.2  19.9  21.4  25.3  27.3  35.3  37.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  15.0  10.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 104.4  93.0  87.7  65.4  51.7  42.4  36.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  44.0  42.0  25.0  43.0  37.0   5.0  28.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0  11.0  10.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.4%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        7.7%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.6%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        6.9%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%        2.4%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        0.8%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 EP132025 250915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.