Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132025 250915 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 111.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.60 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 19.4 18.7 20.1 23.9 30.4 34.1 42.2 F N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 12.0 7.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.4 88.0 82.7 71.5 56.7 44.7 37.4 31.9 N N N U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 39.0 30.0 50.0 47.0 46.0 27.0 18.0 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 63.0 64.0 61.0 57.0 50.0 42.0 35.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 11.0 13.0 12.0 2.0 N N N N U U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 2.3% 2.1% 25kt / 24h 1.3% 5.8% 3.6% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 2.5% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 5.3% 2.9% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 1.6% 1.0% 55kt / 48h 7.3% 0.2% 3.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 EP132025 250915 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 111.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.