Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132025 250915 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.60 112.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 21.2 23.0 24.7 26.7 32.7 36.7 46.2 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.0 77.7 66.5 55.4 44.8 33.3 27.6 24.7 N N U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 53.0 58.0 34.0 57.0 -6.0 17.0 15.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 65.0 60.0 60.0 56.0 53.0 43.0 41.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -2.0 1.0 6.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 0.0 F N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.3% 5.3% 5.8% 25kt / 24h 3.7% 8.6% 6.1% 30kt / 24h 1.9% 4.8% 3.4% 35kt / 24h 1.3% 4.3% 2.8% 40kt / 24h 1.3% 2.8% 2.0% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 8.2% 4.3% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 3.2% 1.8% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.40 EP132025 250915 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.60 112.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.