Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132025 250915 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 113.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 21.8 25.4 29.2 33.1 35.5 41.8 46.5 N N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 72.7 61.5 50.4 46.7 31.8 24.2 22.6 19.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 59.0 45.0 25.0 54.0 4.0 12.0 37.0 N N N U N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 58.0 57.0 54.0 49.0 42.0 39.0 N U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 5.0 9.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 0.0 N N N U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.6% 2.8% 3.7% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 3.2% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 1.6% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.4% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.86 EP132025 250915 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 113.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.