Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132025 250916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  31.2  32.8  37.0  39.2  44.4  52.7  52.7  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.4  49.8  49.8  41.8  34.2  31.2  27.1  27.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  22.0  35.0  45.0  15.0  26.0  34.0  34.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  53.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  12.0   9.0  12.0  17.0   4.0  11.0  11.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.56

 EP132025 250916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.