Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132025 250916 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 116.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 32.9 34.5 33.4 43.3 49.5 52.6 52.6 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.8 51.7 46.8 39.2 39.2 34.7 34.7 34.7 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 30.0 50.0 20.0 19.0 25.0 19.0 19.0 U N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 47.0 46.0 43.0 43.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 8.0 11.0 13.0 5.0 3.0 8.0 8.0 U U U U N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.82 EP132025 250916 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 116.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.