Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132025 250916 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 117.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.9 34.2 32.2 35.3 46.6 46.3 46.3 46.3 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.7 61.7 53.3 49.2 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 57.0 23.0 16.0 14.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 51.0 51.0 49.0 41.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.62 EP132025 250916 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 117.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.