Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132025 250917 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 118.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.7 31.6 33.7 39.8 46.4 46.4 46.4 46.4 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.7 58.3 54.2 54.2 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 32.0 30.0 16.0 11.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 49.0 46.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 13.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.22 EP132025 250917 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 118.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.