Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     99.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  23.0  23.6  25.3  26.7  27.0  30.3  30.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  30.0  38.0  50.0  40.0  47.0  36.0  40.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  97.0  54.0  43.0  65.0  86.0 101.0  47.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  73.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        5.2%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       17.3%       41.0%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       26.4%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       26.4%       15.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       21.7%       11.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.9%       43.4%       26.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%       23.0%       13.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.1%       22.9%       16.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%       14.7%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%       24.5%       16.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 EP142025 250921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     99.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  23.0  23.6  25.3  26.7  27.0  30.3  30.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  73.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%