Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    100.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.2  24.5  27.0  31.0  29.7  31.1  30.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  55.0  37.0  40.0  29.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 124.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  75.0  66.0  87.0  87.0  84.0  69.0  51.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.8%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       25.4%       18.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%       11.6%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       11.4%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       11.0%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%       24.6%       16.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        9.1%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h       12.9%       12.5%       12.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        6.9%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h       10.1%       14.3%       12.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 EP142025 250922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    100.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.2  24.5  27.0  31.0  29.7  31.1  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%