Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    101.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  27.3  26.3  26.2  26.6  29.9  32.5  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  45.0  44.0  53.0  45.0  38.0  38.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 117.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  85.0  92.0 110.0  30.0  82.0  74.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        2.7%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       12.4%       24.5%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%       10.8%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       10.8%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.2%       10.8%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        9.3%       20.9%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        7.0%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%       10.8%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        5.0%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%       10.0%        9.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 EP142025 250922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    101.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  27.3  26.3  26.2  26.6  29.9  32.5  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%