Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    102.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  25.3  26.9  29.0  26.9  33.3  27.8  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  53.0  56.0  43.0  38.0  36.0  24.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 112.3 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  86.0  70.0  96.0  76.0  85.0  97.0  57.0  N  F  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0  -1.0  -7.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.1%        7.8%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h       23.9%       39.3%       31.6%
 30kt / 24h       14.4%       23.7%       19.1%
 35kt / 24h        7.6%       23.7%       15.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       23.7%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h       15.3%       33.2%       24.2%
 55kt / 36h        6.6%       14.3%       10.4%
 55kt / 48h       13.1%       14.6%       13.8%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        7.8%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.1%       13.2%       10.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 EP142025 250922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    102.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  25.3  26.9  29.0  26.9  33.3  27.8  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0  -1.0  -7.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%