Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    103.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  26.8  29.7  27.9  32.0  32.5  27.3  27.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  57.0  42.0  37.0  41.0  32.0  18.0  21.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 109.6 105.1 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  61.0  76.0  79.0  73.0  63.0  71.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0 -10.0  -9.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%       10.3%       11.2%
 25kt / 24h       26.0%       41.1%       33.6%
 30kt / 24h       16.4%       27.3%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       27.3%       18.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%       26.8%       17.9%
 45kt / 36h       14.0%       28.2%       21.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%       11.2%        8.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%       10.4%        8.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        4.7%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        8.0%        5.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 EP142025 250922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    103.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  26.8  29.7  27.9  32.0  32.5  27.3  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0 -10.0  -9.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%