Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  28.6  29.7  30.9  31.7  28.9  30.9  27.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  42.0  36.0  38.0  36.0  25.0  19.0  21.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 107.0 104.6  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  46.0  28.0  95.0  75.0  63.0  55.0  76.0  N  N  U  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0  -7.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%        9.0%       11.0%
 25kt / 24h       22.6%       33.5%       28.0%
 30kt / 24h       15.7%       22.2%       19.0%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       22.2%       16.7%
 40kt / 24h        8.3%       22.2%       15.3%
 45kt / 36h       12.0%       18.9%       15.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%        6.6%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        8.9%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        3.2%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        5.1%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 EP142025 250923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  28.6  29.7  30.9  31.7  28.9  30.9  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0  -7.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%