Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  30.9  34.2  35.0  33.5  30.3  31.2  32.1  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  35.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  21.0  18.0  21.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3 102.0 102.0  97.3  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  45.0  71.0  51.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0   2.0  -5.0 -10.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.4%       12.3%       15.3%
 25kt / 24h       25.3%       35.6%       30.5%
 30kt / 24h       17.3%       25.7%       21.5%
 35kt / 24h       15.8%       25.7%       20.8%
 40kt / 24h       15.8%       25.0%       20.4%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       16.6%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%        5.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        7.2%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.2%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 EP142025 250923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  30.9  34.2  35.0  33.5  30.3  31.2  32.1  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0   2.0  -5.0 -10.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%