Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  30.1  31.6  31.6  28.4  31.3  23.2  30.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  39.0  43.0  33.0  37.0  19.0  20.0  23.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  87.0  87.0  75.7  67.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  80.0  69.0  64.0  77.0  47.0  67.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -7.0 -11.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       69.4%       35.8%       52.6%
 25kt / 24h       59.3%       63.6%       61.5%
 30kt / 24h       55.3%       63.6%       59.4%
 35kt / 24h       55.3%       63.6%       59.4%
 40kt / 24h       55.3%       63.6%       59.4%
 45kt / 36h       34.9%       32.5%       33.7%
 55kt / 36h       15.7%       14.8%       15.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%       13.4%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        4.2%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 EP142025 250923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  30.1  31.6  31.6  28.4  31.3  23.2  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -7.0 -11.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%