Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  34.4  34.3  31.9  30.3  25.8  26.6  31.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  42.0  31.0  36.0  25.0  19.0  24.0  17.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  89.3  87.0  87.0  84.6  69.4  59.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0  73.0  88.0  87.0  27.0  27.0  45.0   6.0  F  N  F  F  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -9.0 -11.0 -12.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.5%       15.8%       27.1%
 25kt / 24h       40.8%       41.8%       41.3%
 30kt / 24h       29.3%       36.9%       33.1%
 35kt / 24h       27.5%       36.9%       32.2%
 40kt / 24h       27.5%       36.5%       32.0%
 45kt / 36h       17.9%       13.8%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%        4.3%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        7.1%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 EP142025 250923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  34.4  34.3  31.9  30.3  25.8  26.6  31.7  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -9.0 -11.0 -12.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%