Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  36.4  30.6  31.5  31.1  20.3  27.5  28.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  26.0  35.0  41.0  20.0  17.0  23.0  12.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  79.3  77.0  77.0  77.0  72.3  57.4  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  83.0  98.0  76.0  49.0  36.0  20.0  45.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.2%        8.5%       15.9%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       25.8%       26.0%
 30kt / 24h       18.6%       20.1%       19.3%
 35kt / 24h       15.7%       20.1%       17.9%
 40kt / 24h       15.0%       17.6%       16.3%
 45kt / 36h       19.0%        9.0%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        2.6%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        3.3%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 EP142025 250924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  36.4  30.6  31.5  31.1  20.3  27.5  28.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%