Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  31.9  32.8  31.9  25.5  25.8  32.1  29.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  37.0  38.0  26.0  18.0  22.0  17.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  72.0  72.0  72.0  69.6  54.4  50.5  41.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 101.0 107.0  78.0  17.0   9.0  23.0  22.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -7.0 -14.0 -10.0 -11.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  F  F VF  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.4%       10.7%       25.6%
 25kt / 24h       29.7%       26.0%       27.9%
 30kt / 24h       28.9%       20.0%       24.4%
 35kt / 24h       28.9%       20.0%       24.4%
 40kt / 24h       28.9%       17.5%       23.2%
 45kt / 36h       29.4%       11.4%       20.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%        3.7%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        2.1%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 EP142025 250924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  31.9  32.8  31.9  25.5  25.8  32.1  29.3  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -7.0 -14.0 -10.0 -11.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  U  U VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%