Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  35.3  34.8  31.9  26.0  28.2  26.0  31.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  38.0  25.0  20.0  17.0  17.0  10.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  65.1  52.4  41.2  29.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  88.0  77.0  72.0  19.0  33.0  33.0  46.0  N  F  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  60.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0 -12.0 -10.0  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -4.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.0%        2.5%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%        6.9%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%        3.6%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%        3.6%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%        3.2%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%        2.0%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 EP142025 250924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  35.3  34.8  31.9  26.0  28.2  26.0  31.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  60.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0 -12.0 -10.0  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%