Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    112.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  31.1  32.0  28.0  29.2  26.9  31.5  29.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  21.0  19.0  18.0  21.0  13.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.0  82.0  79.6  77.3  60.5  58.5  47.7  38.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  31.0  16.0  16.0   9.0  17.0  42.0  49.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -10.0  -9.0  -8.0 -11.0  -8.0  -6.0   0.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        3.5%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.9%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        1.7%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.5%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 EP142025 250925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    112.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  31.1  32.0  28.0  29.2  26.9  31.5  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -10.0  -9.0  -8.0 -11.0  -8.0  -6.0   0.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%