Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142025 250925 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 115.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 87.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 80.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 27.9 29.3 31.9 29.6 31.3 33.3 24.0 U N N U N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 23.0 27.0 16.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 68.6 66.5 62.4 51.2 47.7 36.5 26.7 18.2 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 17.0 -2.0 -8.0 17.0 31.0 60.0 32.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 66.0 62.0 58.0 55.0 51.0 47.0 N N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -5.0 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 -5.0 0.0 -1.0 F F F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.8% 3.0% 4.9% 25kt / 24h 2.2% 4.8% 3.5% 30kt / 24h 2.1% 3.2% 2.7% 35kt / 24h 2.1% 3.1% 2.6% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 2.0% 1.4% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 EP142025 250925 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 115.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.