Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142025 250925 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 117.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 32.6 34.7 31.1 30.6 37.3 33.7 23.0 N U U U U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 23.0 17.0 10.0 4.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.5 60.5 58.5 49.4 47.7 35.0 26.7 18.2 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 -21.0 -20.0 -3.0 35.0 34.0 30.0 28.0 U VU VU U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 66.0 64.0 60.0 58.0 52.0 49.0 44.0 N N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -9.0 -8.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -1.0 -2.0 F F F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.3% 2.4% 3.8% 25kt / 24h 1.3% 3.0% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 1.3% 1.8% 1.5% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 EP142025 250925 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 117.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.