Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142025 250926 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 118.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.7 33.1 31.6 31.1 33.3 39.3 29.2 17.0 U U U U U U N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 17.0 10.0 6.0 10.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.5 58.5 49.4 47.7 46.0 35.0 25.4 11.7 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -34.0 -35.0 -13.0 19.0 16.0 35.0 34.0 5.0 VU VU U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 63.0 60.0 60.0 54.0 47.0 44.0 36.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -8.0 -9.0 -8.0 -4.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.8% 1.8% 2.8% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 2.2% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% 35kt / 24h 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.08 EP142025 250926 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 118.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.