Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142025 250926 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 120.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.6 31.4 29.7 30.7 35.1 36.0 27.4 21.4 U U N U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 12.0 7.0 6.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.5 58.5 47.7 47.7 44.3 33.6 25.4 18.2 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -18.0 -9.0 20.0 25.0 11.0 8.0 -6.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 60.0 56.0 51.0 47.0 41.0 35.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -8.0 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 -1.0 -3.0 1.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.0% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 EP142025 250926 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 120.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.