Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142025 250926 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 121.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 81.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 29.4 28.3 31.2 36.9 32.5 21.4 22.2 U N N U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 6.0 4.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.5 47.7 47.7 46.0 35.0 25.4 18.2 12.7 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -22.0 1.0 11.0 11.0 34.0 -3.0 21.0 18.0 VU U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 48.0 45.0 40.0 36.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -8.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 F F F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.5% 1.5% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 1.3% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 EP142025 250926 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 121.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.