Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  29.3  30.8  34.2  31.6  26.4  16.4  23.1  N  N  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   4.0   4.0  10.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.7  47.7  46.0  36.5  35.0  18.2  12.7  12.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  36.0   2.0   4.0 -13.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  40.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -11.0  -8.0  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        1.6%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.56

 EP142025 250926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.