Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    123.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  31.6  32.2  33.1  29.0  23.1  17.8  21.6  N  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   6.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.7  46.0  36.5  36.5  26.7  18.2  12.7  12.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0   5.0  18.0  34.0 -15.0  -1.0  22.0 -44.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  45.0  39.0  34.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -7.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0   0.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        1.3%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.30

 EP142025 250927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    123.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.