Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142025 250927 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 124.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 86.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.9 30.7 32.2 29.2 27.9 17.2 20.9 20.9 N U U N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 6.0 8.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.0 36.5 36.5 35.0 18.2 12.7 12.7 12.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 1.0 37.0 1.0 -23.0 5.0 1.0 -27.0 U U N U VU U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 49.0 42.0 35.0 34.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -6.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -2.0 1.0 0.0 F F N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 1.0% 1.8% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.12 EP142025 250927 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 124.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.