Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  33.3  28.1  27.8  23.8  15.9  22.4  24.6  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   8.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.5  36.5  36.5  28.0  19.3  12.7  12.7   7.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  22.0   0.0 -26.0   0.0  -8.0 -32.0 -10.0  U  U  U VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  41.0  37.0  36.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.90

 EP142025 250927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.