Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142025 250928 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 125.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.2 26.9 25.6 21.6 17.9 23.4 25.8 24.9 N N N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 51.5 41.7 41.7 33.2 27.7 27.7 21.8 21.8 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 -27.0 0.0 6.0 11.0 -7.0 -50.0 -15.0 U VU U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 48.0 45.0 42.0 35.0 31.0 30.0 29.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -5.0 -5.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.34 EP142025 250928 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 125.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.