Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  26.6  20.8  16.9  18.5  22.5  24.2  23.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.0  58.0  49.3  49.3  42.7  42.7  36.8  31.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -53.0 -14.0   4.0   9.0  11.0 -35.0 -14.0 -11.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  44.0  41.0  33.0  32.0  29.0  29.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   9.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.14

 EP142025 250928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.