Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142025 250928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  16.3  15.8  21.6  23.1  22.2  21.5  29.7  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.3  57.7  57.7  58.8  52.8  51.8  51.8  46.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  11.0  28.0  31.0 -46.0 -29.0 -21.0  24.0  U  U  U  N VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  37.0  33.0  31.0  30.0  28.0  28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.26

 EP142025 250928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.