Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 16.4 21.1 23.6 21.1 23.0 24.3 34.1 F F N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 57.8 57.8 56.8 51.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 10.0 34.0 -17.0 -31.0 -42.0 14.0 1.0 U U N U VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 35.0 32.0 31.0 29.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.20 EP142025 250929 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.