Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 111.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.0 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 129.6 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 EP152025 251009 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 111.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.0 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 48.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%