Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  24.6  25.4  28.9  25.2  24.7  24.7  30.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  37.0  31.0  31.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0 139.0 183.0 169.0 111.0  74.0  30.0  29.0  F VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%        7.6%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h       35.5%       50.7%       43.1%
 30kt / 24h       17.0%       32.9%       25.0%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       32.9%       22.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       32.6%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       22.4%       48.8%       35.6%
 55kt / 36h        8.6%       25.3%       17.0%
 55kt / 48h       23.9%       28.8%       26.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.1%       19.4%       14.2%
 65kt / 72h       10.6%       23.7%       17.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 EP162025 251005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  24.6  25.4  28.9  25.2  24.7  24.7  30.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%