Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  28.5  26.0  23.9  22.4  18.3  22.4  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  30.0  31.0  30.0  17.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6 102.9  84.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   151.0 145.0 136.0 126.0 105.0  35.0  67.0  57.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        7.9%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       38.2%       48.7%       43.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.0%       34.7%       27.8%
 35kt / 24h       15.1%       34.7%       24.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.1%       34.7%       21.9%
 45kt / 36h       28.2%       40.4%       34.3%
 55kt / 36h       10.9%       18.5%       14.7%
 55kt / 48h       20.4%       25.6%       23.0%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%       13.4%       10.3%
 65kt / 72h        9.3%       17.0%       13.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 EP162025 251005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  28.5  26.0  23.9  22.4  18.3  22.4  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%