Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  25.4  22.9  21.4  24.3  18.7  24.4  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  29.0  31.0  28.0  15.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6  87.4  79.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 133.0 121.0 111.0  95.0  34.0  54.0  26.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.5%       12.6%       14.1%
 25kt / 24h       49.5%       61.0%       55.2%
 30kt / 24h       29.1%       52.0%       40.6%
 35kt / 24h       24.7%       52.0%       38.4%
 40kt / 24h       12.0%       51.3%       31.6%
 45kt / 36h       32.9%       49.7%       41.3%
 55kt / 36h       13.7%       27.0%       20.3%
 55kt / 48h       18.1%       31.3%       24.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%       16.2%       11.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%       15.3%       10.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 EP162025 251005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  25.4  22.9  21.4  24.3  18.7  24.4  23.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%