Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    107.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  22.6  22.8  24.0  20.4  20.7  27.5  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  39.0  37.0  33.0  31.0  31.0  24.0  11.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  99.6  92.9  82.4  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   129.0 126.0  99.0  81.0  30.0  67.0  38.0  31.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.6%       12.3%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h       42.7%       56.1%       49.4%
 30kt / 24h       23.1%       50.0%       36.5%
 35kt / 24h       20.6%       50.0%       35.3%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%       46.7%       28.2%
 45kt / 36h       24.4%       36.7%       30.5%
 55kt / 36h        8.2%       17.1%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       23.1%       16.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        8.8%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        7.1%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 EP162025 251005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    107.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  22.6  22.8  24.0  20.4  20.7  27.5  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  73.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%