Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251006 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  22.2  24.0  21.9  20.2  25.0  21.7  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  37.0  32.0  30.0  31.0  27.0  15.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  94.6  77.4  69.8  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0  74.0  76.0  68.0   0.0  61.0  45.0  43.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.4%       23.3%       26.8%
 25kt / 24h       53.4%       64.7%       59.0%
 30kt / 24h       42.9%       62.8%       52.8%
 35kt / 24h       42.9%       62.8%       52.8%
 40kt / 24h       16.8%       62.0%       39.4%
 45kt / 36h       28.7%       42.4%       35.5%
 55kt / 36h       13.1%       23.2%       18.2%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%       20.4%       14.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        8.6%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        6.0%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP162025 251006 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  22.2  24.0  21.9  20.2  25.0  21.7  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%