Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  25.0  24.5  21.4  20.5  22.7  19.5  17.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  34.0  30.0  30.0  31.0  25.0  11.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  77.9  67.4  54.4  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  89.0  64.0  25.0  38.0  35.0  41.0   7.0  N  F  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  67.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.5%       34.0%       49.8%
 25kt / 24h       62.7%       71.4%       67.0%
 30kt / 24h       62.7%       71.4%       67.0%
 35kt / 24h       62.7%       71.4%       67.0%
 40kt / 24h       45.9%       71.4%       58.7%
 45kt / 36h       37.7%       37.2%       37.4%
 55kt / 36h       20.3%       19.5%       19.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%       16.7%       11.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        6.1%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP162025 251006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  25.0  24.5  21.4  20.5  22.7  19.5  17.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  67.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%