Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162025 251006 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 107.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 69.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.6 24.7 23.7 21.2 26.7 23.3 22.6 18.3 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 30.0 30.0 31.0 30.0 15.0 7.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 84.6 77.9 54.4 40.0 24.3 N N N N N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 69.0 27.0 12.0 38.0 5.0 19.0 28.0 N N U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 72.0 68.0 63.0 60.0 N F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 11.0 F N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 45.8% 23.1% 34.4% 25kt / 24h 47.3% 54.6% 50.9% 30kt / 24h 47.3% 54.6% 50.9% 35kt / 24h 47.3% 54.6% 50.9% 40kt / 24h 21.7% 54.6% 38.2% 45kt / 36h 23.2% 21.5% 22.4% 55kt / 36h 9.6% 8.9% 9.2% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 6.8% 4.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.52 EP162025 251006 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 107.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.6 24.7 23.7 21.2 26.7 23.3 22.6 18.3 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 72.0 68.0 63.0 60.0 N U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 11.0 U N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%