Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251006 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  22.6  21.4  22.3  24.2  19.6  19.9  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  28.0  30.0  31.0  23.0  10.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  84.6  87.0  67.4  51.0  34.4  18.8  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  22.0  18.0  21.0  12.0  21.0   1.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  63.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   7.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.1%       10.5%       12.3%
 25kt / 24h       22.0%       32.9%       27.4%
 30kt / 24h       19.0%       29.9%       24.4%
 35kt / 24h       19.0%       29.9%       24.4%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%       29.7%       18.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%        8.0%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%        2.5%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        3.3%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 EP162025 251006 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  22.6  21.4  22.3  24.2  19.6  19.9  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  63.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   7.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%