Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  19.3  23.1  23.2  18.3  19.3  20.0  26.5  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  31.0  32.0  29.0  14.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  84.6  77.9  77.9  54.4  38.6  24.3  13.7  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  12.0  27.0  12.0  34.0  16.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  69.0  71.0  67.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.7%       14.3%       14.5%
 25kt / 24h       19.8%       32.2%       26.0%
 30kt / 24h       18.2%       31.0%       24.6%
 35kt / 24h       18.2%       31.0%       24.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%       28.0%       16.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%        9.2%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        3.2%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 EP162025 251007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  19.3  23.1  23.2  18.3  19.3  20.0  26.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  69.0  71.0  67.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%