Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  20.8  25.1  24.9  19.8  19.8  18.7  31.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  32.0  29.0  22.0  10.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  72.9  72.9  62.4  46.0  19.3  12.7   3.3  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  45.0  14.0   2.0  14.0  23.0  11.0  15.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  63.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.1%       18.5%       21.8%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       30.1%       25.5%
 30kt / 24h       19.9%       29.2%       24.5%
 35kt / 24h       19.9%       29.2%       24.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%       24.1%       16.0%
 45kt / 36h       10.4%       11.0%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%        4.3%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 EP162025 251007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  20.8  25.1  24.9  19.8  19.8  18.7  31.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  63.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%