Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  26.7  24.6  20.9  19.9  17.7  21.7  30.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  27.0  18.0  13.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.9  52.4  52.4  39.4  23.6   9.3  -6.7 -12.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  30.0  13.0  15.0  10.0 -27.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.0%       17.7%       31.9%
 25kt / 24h       21.7%       20.3%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h       21.7%       17.8%       19.7%
 35kt / 24h       21.7%       17.8%       19.7%
 40kt / 24h        8.8%       13.3%       11.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 EP162025 251007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  26.7  24.6  20.9  19.9  17.7  21.7  30.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%