Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  26.2  23.1  22.0  19.2  17.8  28.8  31.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  20.0  14.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.4  47.4  34.4  26.1  11.7  -6.3 -11.7 -17.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  34.0   4.0  -6.0   6.0   1.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   9.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.5%        8.7%       19.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.7%        7.8%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.7%        5.7%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%        5.5%        7.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.12

 EP162025 251007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.