Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    111.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  21.2  18.1  16.9  17.7  22.9  32.2  38.4  N  N  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  13.0   8.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.4  34.4  26.1  18.6   4.3 -11.7 -17.4 -23.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0   7.0 -19.0 -16.0  11.0   5.0   2.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  51.0  54.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  10.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        2.0%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        1.9%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.68

 EP162025 251008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    111.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.