Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  16.3  15.6  16.5  20.5  31.2  38.3  47.6  N  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  10.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.4  44.4  28.6  14.3   7.7  -1.7  -7.4 -13.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0 -21.0 -13.0   0.0   8.0 -21.0 -12.0  63.0  U VU  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  61.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  51.0  57.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  12.0  13.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.5%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.22

 EP162025 251008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.