Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162025 251008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  15.4  16.1  18.1  26.5  36.9  46.9  48.8  N  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  43.6  43.6  29.3  18.7   7.6   1.4  -3.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   2.0  18.0   7.0  -6.0  -4.0   7.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  53.0  59.0  61.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   7.0  10.0  18.0  20.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.88

 EP162025 251008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.